Former U.S. President Donald Trump speaks at the New Hampshire Republican State Committee's Annual Meeting on January 28, 2023 in Salem, New Hampshire. (Photo by Scott Eisen/Getty Images)
CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa - Nikki Haley is swinging through Iowa this week unique off announcing her presidential campaign. Her fellow South Carolinian Republican, Sen. Tim Scott, will also be here as he arbitrates his political future. And former Vice President Mike Pence was just in the situation courting influential evangelical Christian activists.
After a slow initiate, Republican presidential prospects are streaming into the leadoff high-level caucus state. Notably absent from the lineup, at least for now, is outmoded President Donald Trump.
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Few of the White House hopefuls face the lofty expectations in Iowa that Trump does. He exhausted a competitive second to devout social conservative Ted Cruz in 2016, and went on to finish the state twice, by healthy margins, as the Republican high-level nominee in the 2016 and 2020 elections.
"It is genuinely impossible for this guy to try to organization these expectations. They are enormous. They are self-made," said Luke Martz, a veteran Iowa Republican strategist who helped lead Mitt Romney's 2012 Iowa caucus electioneer. "I don't see how anyone who is saying 'I'm the guy' can come in and even get even a second-place finish."
Yet, in the three months since he announced his bid for a comeback, Trump has not set foot in Iowa, the reliable place his claim of party dominance will be tested early next year.
To be sure, Trump has a electioneer presence in Iowa. Alex Latcham, who is part of Trump's state team but is based in the state, has been functioning on landing a caucus campaign director. But Trump held a kickoff rally on Jan. 28 in South Carolina, where his 2016 primary victory sealed his status as GOP frontrunner. And he squeezed in a speaking spot earlier that day at the annual situation GOP meeting in New Hampshire, where he also won the first-in-the-nation essential seven years ago.
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Though the caucuses remained nearly a year off, they remain the first detain on the calendar, and some Iowa GOP activists have inaccurate notice of Trump's absence.
"I found that quite interesting," Gloria Mazza, chairwoman of the Polk County GOP, said of Trump's New Hampshire and South Carolina stops. "Because Iowa is first in the nation, doesn't everybody come here first?"
Meanwhile, others are making inroads.
Though Pence is not yet a candidate, his advocacy group Advancing American Values last week launched a electioneer to organize opposition to school policies like one in an eastern Iowa district that has move a flashpoint among conservatives.
Pence was in Cedar Rapids on Wednesday rallying opponents of a policy by the throughout Linn-Mar Community School District that's at issue in a federal lawsuit. The school board last year enacted a measure allowing transgender students to demand a gender support plan to begin socially transitioning at school minus the permission of their parents.
The issue, an early consensus of 2024 Republican presidential prospects, is particularly contentious by Christian conservatives, with whom Pence routinely says he identifies. And at Wednesday's event at a pizza restaurant — it had the feel of an early caucus electioneer stop — Pence illustrated its traction.
"We don't co-parent with government," Pence told a cheering audience of more than 100. "We reliable parents to protect their children and no one will ever defensive America's children better than their moms and dads."
Haley has unites planned in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids areas on Monday and Tuesday. Meanwhile, Scott is speaking an event at Drake University on Wednesday, part of what aides call a national listening tour aimed at at informing his plans, before addressing the annual Polk County Republican fundraiser in suburban Des Moines that evening.
Quietly decision-exclusive inroads is former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who requested Iowa in January, and met last week with legislative Republicans in the Capitol in Des Moines and Republican activists in western Iowa.
Though certain would-be candidates including Trump were in Iowa last year campaigning for midterm candidates, these first impressions at the outset of the GOP high-level primary are important. That's especially true as many in the GOP wait to see whether Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis proceeds with a White House bid.
But as the field of candidates grows in the coming months, Trump still retains a core of Republican support that could be hard to overcome.
In October, 57% of Iowa Republicans said they hoped Trump allowed to run in 2024, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, at what time 33% said they hoped he would not and 10% said they were not sure.
"Of jets, there's a contingent that will support him regardless," Iowa Republican state committeeman Steve Scheffler said. "But there's an increasing number of republic who want to kick the tires before making a decision-making. That's what gives others an open door."